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Story of Our Grid

 

The entire New York statewide electricity system will undergo dramatic changes as it evolves to become a zero emissions grid by 2040. Below is a representative visualization of how this transformation could potentially take place across the State using information from an Initial Scenario in the Zero Emissions Electric Grid in NY by 2040 study, a component of the Power Grid Study. This provides representative information about how customer energy use or “load” may be met in upstate (zones A-E) and downstate (zones F-K) New York in 2030 and 2040.

Key Takeaways:

NYS achieves its “70% renewables to meet load in 2030” and “100% clean energy to meet load in 2040” targets with a renewable mix of offshore wind, land-based wind, utility solar, distributed solar, and hydro (in-state and imports) resources.

Upstate (Zones A-E) Generation to Serve Load 2030

 
 

All Energy Sources

 

Load = 51,223 GWh

Total Zero-emission = 51,223 GWh, 100%

Net Export to Neighbors = 5,903 GWh

Color Fuel Type Percentage
   Nuclear 30%
   Other Zero-emission 0.9%
   Renewables 70%

Renewable Energy Sources Breakout

 
Color Fuel Type Percentage
   Existing NY Hydro 31%
   HQ Hydro 12%
   BTM Solar (AC) 4%
   Solar 5%
   Land-based Wind 17%
   Other Renewables 0.6%


  • Upstate load is completely met with zero emissions generation by 2030. 70% of this electricity comes from renewable resources (43% from existing New York and Quebec hydroelectric generation, 27% from solar, land-based wind and other renewables) while the other 30% comes from zero emission resources that include nuclear generation.

Downstate (Zones F-K) Generation to Serve Load 2030

 
 

All Energy Sources

 

Load = 100,455 GWh

Total Zero-emission = 80,779 GWh, 80%

Net Export/(Import) to Neighbors = (55) GWh

Color Fuel Type Percentage
   Existing Fossil 20%
   Fossil Import 0.1%
   Nuclear 9%
   Other Zero-emission 1%
   Renewables 70%

 

 

Renewable Energy Sources Breakout

 
Color Fuel Type Percentage
   NY Hydro 12%
   HQ Hydro 3%
   Tier 4 Proxy 10%
   BTM Solar (AC) 6%
   Solar 3%
   Land-based Wind 10%
   Offshore Wind 24%
   Other Renewables 0.7%

     

    • 80% of downstate load is met with zero emissions resources in 2030. 70% of this electricity comes from renewable resources (26% from existing New York and Quebec hydroelectric generation and an illustrative Tier 4 renewable energy project, 24% from offshore wind generation, 20% from solar, land-based wind and other renewables) while the other 10% comes from zero emission resources that include nuclear generations.

Progress to date: Current and pipeline “renewables” on path to 70x30

Combined with the existing baseline of renewable facilities in New York, the current pipeline of renewables already under contract and in development projects will power 50% of New York's electricity once operational. With expected future contributions, 70% of NY electricity will come from renewables in 2030. Refer to the NYSERDA Clean Energy Standard.

Upstate (Zones A-E) Generation to Serve Load 2040

 
 

All Energy Sources

 

Load = 74,905 GWh

Total Zero-emission = 74,905 GWh, 100%

Net Export to Neighbors = 219 GWh

Color Fuel Type Percentage
   Nuclear 24%
   Other Zero-emissision 0.7%
   Renewables 75%

 

 

Renewable Energy Sources Breakout

 
Color Fuel Type Percentage
   NY Hydro 23%
   HQ Hydro 9%
   BTM Solar (AC) 4%
   Solar 15%
   Land-based Wind 25%
   Other Renewables 0.4%

 

 

  • Upstate load is completely met with zero emissions generation in 2040. 75% of this electricity comes from renewable resources while the other 25% comes from zero emission resources that include nuclear generation.

Downstate (Zones F-K) Generation to Serve Load 2040

 
 

All Energy Sources

 

Load = 132,601 GWh

Total Zero-emission = 132,601 GWh, 100%

Net Export to Neighbors = 733 GWh

Color Fuel Type Percentage
   RNG (2040) 2%
   Nuclear 7%
   Other Zero-emissision 0.8%
   Renewables 90%

 

Renewable Energy Sources Breakout

 
Color Fuel Type Percentage
   NY Hydro 8%
   HQ Hydro 3%
   Tier 4 Proxy 7%
   BTM Solar (AC) 5%
   Solar 15%
   Land-based Wind 19%
   Offshore Wind 33%
   Other Renewables 0.5%


  • Downstate load is completely met with zero emissions generation in 2040. 90% of this electricity comes from renewable resources while the other 10% comes from zero emission resources that includes nuclear generation and Renewable Natural Gas. 

Analytical Overview:

The guiding principles shown below were implemented in designing the graphics focused on treatment of internal zonal flows and imports/exports from neighboring regions. All renewable energy and nuclear energy generated in NY stays in NY, because clean energy attributes are assumed to belong to NY.

  • Hydro imports from Quebec region into A-E and the Tier 4 NYC project (proxy) into F-K are assumed to serve NY load.
  • Any thermal generation using fossil fuel is assumed to be the first source of energy exported.
  • All net imports are assumed to be thermal generation using fossil fuel (conservative assumption).
  • Inter zonal flows from upstate to downstate are characterized by the upstate system mix, including imports from neighboring regions.

Endnotes:

  • Consistent with the Power Grid Study, this analysis assumes economic bulk transmission additions starting 2035 in NYS.
  • Modeling results from the Power Grid Study were mined to identify: (a) net imports by neighbor (upstate and downstate); (b) upstate/downstate flow; (c) internal generation by zone; and (d) total electricity requirements or demand for both regions.
  • Energy storage and/or pumped storage are not part of the graphics, as storage technology, on a net basis, is generally a load and not a generator.
  • The nuclear generation to serve load downstate in 2030 and 2040 flows from the upstate system mix.
  • “Other Renewables” in the analysis includes generation using biomass and landfill gas. Due to uncertainty in eligibility for certain resources, the contribution of Other Renewables was discounted by 40%.
  • Under the PGS, the Tier 4 project proxy into NYC counts toward the State’s 70x30 target.
  • 2025 upstate CO2e: 0.03 metric tonne/MWh; and 2025 downstate CO2e: 0.2 metric tonne/MWh.
  • 2025 Zone J (NYC) CO2e: 0.2 metric tonne/MWh; and 2030 Zone J (NYC) CO2e: 0.1 metric tonne/MWh
  • Power Grid Study assumed consistent 10 TWh of hydro imports from Quebec region to persist over time.