How To Evaluate and Select Decarbonization Strategies

This section provides guidance on identifying decarbonization solutions, analyzing these solutions against key criteria, and evaluating this information for decision-making and strategy selection. The following steps present a series of key considerations for an approach to selecting decarbonization strategies.

Step 1: Gather Baseline Information

Understanding your current state of greenhouse gas emissions and sources of such on campus will give you a sense of where you might see areas of opportunity to decarbonize. Knowing your starting point is key for setting goals, planning effective solutions, and measuring progress. You’ll want to look at existing campus plans, to understand how current plans can complement your decarbonization goals, and building and operations level data, to understand how your campus is using energy to then identify needs.

Step 2: Develop an Evaluation Framework

An evaluation framework provides your team of key stakeholders an objective set of criteria by which to review many potential options and variables against a set of campus priorities and needs. An evaluation framework should enable a comprehensive evaluation of each option’s performance, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative factors. Note that your campus may have different evaluation criteria than those of other campuses.

The table below illustrates a sample starting point for an evaluation framework.

Step 3: Develop Decarbonization Pathway Options

Using your baseline data, first develop a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario in which you do nothing by way of energy efficiency/load reduction or fuel switching. This scenario should include a campus growth trajectory in terms of square footage and expected energy sources needed to operate new buildings. The BAU scenario is your basis for comparison.

It is common to develop two or three additional scenarios exploring “what if” you were to apply different interventions. The defining characteristics of each option may be determined by a specific area of focus. For example, you may include variables such as:

• Technology selection (e.g., air source vs. ground source heat pumps)
• System configurations (e.g., central plant vs. decentralized vs. hybrid)
• Investment in energy conservation measures (ECMs) (e.g., envelope upgrades)
• Implementation complexity (e.g., infrastructure upgrades, material and labor costs, disruptions to campus)
• Cost, feasibility, and capital availability

A well-established hierarchy of high-level strategies you can use to form the foundation of each pathway option. Using this hierarchy, you can explore options from each of the high-level decarbonization strategies.

Plan. For new construction, plan to develop zero-emissions building standards. For existing buildings, major renovations and retrofits are great opportunities to incorporate decarbonization strategies, and it’s helpful to have policies in place to align with goals. For existing buildings with no immediate needs for renovation, develop a strategic plan outlining priorities, decarbonization goals, and strategies informed by audits, assessments, and/or cost determinations.

Reduce load. Implementing ECMs first before designing decarbonized HVAC systems will ultimately lower the costs of fuel switching on your campus. Some ECMs are “no-regret,” meaning they are low-cost, easy to implement, and have relatively fast paybacks. If possible, though, bundle more capital-intensive ECMs with projects with faster paybacks to balance the cost impacts.

Electrify. Electrification replaces fossil fuel-based heating and cooling with efficient, electric alternatives, increasingly powered by renewables. The transition may require an interim step, such as converting existing steam or high-temperature hot water systems to low-temperature systems compatible with modern electric equipment (e.g., heat pumps).

Produce and store. Exploring opportunities for hosting or investing in renewable energy, as well as exploring battery and thermal energy storage strategies, will help you reduce dependence on supplied energy and strengthen your system’s redundancy and resilience.

Track and monitor. Continuously track and monitor your progress to stay both accountable and on target. Keep your community informed regular reporting and stakeholder engagement. The Better Buildings Solutions Center has various resources available to guide tracking and monitoring, including a primer on using energy management information systems.